While the former president is not on the ballot, his significant influence over the Republican Party and the considerable power of his endorsements in primary contests are under examination this Tuesday. Statewide runoff elections are set to take place in South Carolina and Oklahoma, featuring candidates he has publicly supported.
In South Carolina, the former president has endorsed Senator Darline Graham in the Republican Senate nomination runoff. Graham is seeking to secure the seat previously held by her brother, GOP Senator Lindsey Graham, who passed away unexpectedly at the age of 71 this summer.
Concurrently, in Oklahoma, the former president is backing Mike Mazzei, a former state budget secretary and ex-state senator, for the Republican gubernatorial nomination. This race will determine who succeeds term-limited GOP Governor Kevin Stitt.
Both candidates championed by the former president are engaged in competitive races. The day's electoral events also include a special election runoff in Georgia to fill a congressional vacancy. This seat became open following the death of Democratic Representative David Scott in April. The two contenders in Georgia are Democrats, meaning the outcome will further narrow the already precarious Republican majority in the House of Representatives.
South Carolina Senate Race: A Critical Test
In South Carolina, Darline Graham is in a direct contest with conservative Representative Ralph Norman. The victor of this runoff will become the Republican Senate nominee on the midterm ballot in the reliably red state.
Graham and Norman emerged as the top two finishers in a special Senate primary held two weeks prior. Since neither candidate secured an outright majority of the votes, they advanced to this runoff election. The initial field also included Representative Russell Fry and former governor and ex-Representative Mark Sanford.
The former president actively campaigned for Graham, headlining a rally in Myrtle Beach last Friday. He urged attendees:
"We need every South Carolina patriot to go to the polls and vote for Darline Graham. What I really want you to do is pretend, please, that I'm on the ballot. Just come and vote. It's so important."
Graham has garnered support from several prominent figures, including South Carolina's term-limited Governor Henry McMaster, who appointed her last month to serve the remainder of her late brother's Senate term. She also has the endorsement of Fry, a key ally of the former president in the House, and Senator Tim Scott, South Carolina's other senator and chair of the National Republican Senatorial Committee.
Conversely, Ralph Norman, who previously made an unsuccessful bid for the GOP gubernatorial nomination earlier this year to succeed McMaster, has emphasized his own support for the former president throughout his Senate campaign. He has also openly questioned why the former president chose to endorse Darline Graham.
Norman received an endorsement last week from Mark Sanford, who briefly mounted an unsuccessful long-shot presidential challenge against the former president in 2020. Sanford, recognized for his fiscally conservative stance, cited the national debt as a primary motivation for his decision to launch a Senate campaign and, subsequently, for backing Norman.
Endorsement Power Under Scrutiny
The former president's endorsement has not guaranteed victory in every race this election cycle, particularly in South Carolina.
For instance, he endorsed Lieutenant Governor Pamela Evette for the GOP gubernatorial nomination—in the contest to succeed the term-limited McMaster—ahead of the state's early June primary. While Evette was the leading vote-getter in the primary, she ultimately lost the subsequent runoff election against South Carolina Attorney General Alan Wilson by a significant margin. In a move to secure a win, the former president even endorsed Wilson in addition to Evette just days before the runoff.
One strategist, who requested anonymity to speak candidly, suggested that the former president "came to South Carolina to solidify his endorsement because he has to show a win here."
As Norman campaigns for the Senate, he also enjoys the backing of former South Carolina Governor Nikki Haley, who served as ambassador to the United Nations during the former president's first term. Notably, Norman was the sole member of South Carolina's congressional delegation, and the first member of the conservative House Freedom Caucus, to endorse Haley over the former president in the 2024 Republican presidential primaries.
The same GOP strategist commented on the political dynamics, arguing that the former president "still has a nasty taste in his mouth for Nikki Haley."
Oklahoma Gubernatorial Runoff
In Oklahoma, the former president's endorsed candidate, Mike Mazzei, finished slightly behind state Attorney General Gentner Drummond in the initial June GOP primary. A crowded field prevented either candidate from securing an outright nomination. The winner of Tuesday's GOP runoff is widely anticipated to be the clear favorite in the general election within the Republican-dominated state.
Broader Impact of Endorsements
The former president has frequently highlighted his strong endorsement record in GOP primaries throughout this election cycle.
This past weekend, he asserted in a social media post:
"My Endorsements are stronger than ever."
However, five of his preferred gubernatorial candidates in Republican primaries have not succeeded. In addition to South Carolina's Evette, this list includes Georgia Lieutenant Governor Burt Jones and Iowa Representative Randy Feenstra, both of whom lost their nominating contests this spring. More recently, two weeks ago, Wyoming Superintendent of Public Instruction Megan Degenfelder and Minnesota businessman and founder of "My Pillow," Mike Lindell, also fell short.
One political commentator, Williams, observed that "the president still has a firm grip on the party, even in places where a candidate he backed loses a nomination." However, he also pointed out that "if there are underlying issues with a candidacy, those can pose problems that even an endorsement can’t overcome."
Georgia Special Election Runoff
Meanwhile, in Georgia, two Democrats are competing to serve the remaining months of Representative David Scott's term in the House, which concludes at the end of the year.
The finalists in this contest are former Gwinnett County School Board Chair Everton Blair and Marcye Scott, the late congressman's daughter.
